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What Next After Trump - Kim 2nd Summit


Prashant Shukla is an observer of International
Development, Ireland India Council, Ireland.
The recent famous summit between Trump and Kim ended with a mess and without a direction. However, President Trump signalled that not all over yet on the prospects on negotiations and he continues to call Kim Jong-un, whom he likes, "quite a guy."  

President Trump called a “productive time” as two leaders got to know each other. The reports are emerging on some activities are seen on North Korean missile test sites. It will lead to whether the Kim might be getting ready to conduct another test to indicate his frustration with the negotiations, in which the United States refused to lift sanctions in exchange for Kim’s offering to dismantle nuclear infrastructure.

It is in the news that North Korea has offered to shut down the Yongbyon nuclear complex consisting of reactors, fuel reprocessing plants, and uranium enrichment facilities. Kim believes this was a huge offer. However, the United States confirmed that the definition of facilities to be covered under the Yongbyon complex remained ambiguous in exchange for a demand to lift all sanctions. 

The United States demands that there may be other nuclear facilities beyond Yongbyon and that in any case, this deal did not include existing nuclear weapons, fissile material stockpiles and North Korean missile capabilities. Therefore, lifting all sanctions was not on the table unless in return the US achieve the complete denuclearisation of North Korea.

Kim accelerated nuclear and missile tests in 2015-2016, and then claimed in November 2017 that North Korea had achieved "the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force." Indeed, from the point of existential deterrence, more nuclear tests are not an urgent necessity. 

So far Kim's massive victory that he brings President of the United States at the table and it is a remarkable achievement for the DPRK. Kim attracted world attention when two leaders shook hands in Singapore in June 2018, that was a moment of victory of sorts for the North Korean leader. His nuclear behaviour had achieved something none of his predecessors made. 

If Kim resumes nuclear tests will that strain the relationship with Beijing? China's interest, instead it has the threat toned down so that the United States may reconsider the deployment of the High Altitude Area Defence system in South Korea and Japan, this China sees as a threat to its nuclear deterrence. 

What Trump has offered to Kim, believed to be the best deal.   Trump as president, would be happy to showcase a victory as a success of his decision-making. However, Trump is also a master deal-maker and the fact that he chose to walk away in Hanoi without anything maybe a masterstroke to get Kim to relent. 

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